1056

November 21, 1917

SOME THOUGHTS ON THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION, WHICH HAS BEEN CREATED
BY THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION AND BROUGHT TO A CRISIS BY THE REGENT
BOLSHEVIK COUP D'ETAT.

It is freely admitted at the very beginning of this writing that
I have been nearly a year and a half in Russia, and, that, aside from
three weeks in England at the very beginning of the war, I have not been
in any other of the warring countries. It is possible and indeed high-
ly probable, that a stay in England and France in contact with the tre-
mendously interesting technical preparations and operations, which have
to do with the conduct of the War from day to day, would compel admira-
tion and enthusiasm for the sacrifices and achievements of these Allies
and make me impatient or even disgusted with Russia, whose miliary de-
cline has delayed or (as I am convinced) made impossible the former
"orthodox" military solution of the war. This orthodox solution in-
volved the "crushing" of Germany by overwhelming military defeat to
such a degree that the victors could impose their own peace terms. As
far as I can judge, however, I am not sorry to be in Russia, and I be-
lieve my thinking is clearer here than it might be in the heat of the
war in England and France.

Let us examine the situation in the various warring countries at
the present time as it appears to a layman without military experience
but who has had frequent conversations with military men.

CENTRAL POWERS:

A u s t r i a is torn by interracial strife and the movement for
democratization but like the minor allies of Germany is kept going by
German backbone and stimulus.

G e r m a n y is already militarily beaten as far as these far-
reaching plans are concerned, which she cherished at the beginning of the
war. From the old-fashioned chessboard points of view, however, she is
successful if one considers the territory at present occupied by her.
Again she is also successful in that it has been found impossible up to
now to "crush" her. She is being pushed back on the Western front but
this is a slow and costly operation, and the prospects of a "march on
Berlin" do not seem brilliant. Her food situation is precarious but
it has been found possible up to the present to meet it by organization
and self-sacrifice. The movement for democratization of the Government
goes on but it is impeded by the sincere conviction amongst all classes
of the population that too swift or too abrupt a change might compromise
fighting power, and that this must not be becuase Germany is fighting a
a war of defense. The utterances and the attitue of the Allies except
the United States have calculated to maintain this impression and the
Prussian autocratic government has made the most of the situation.

ALLIES:

England can control of the sea in so far as impeding Germany's
commerce is concerned (except with Sweden) but her control over her own
and Allied commerce is not so good-- as far as protecting it is concerned,
because of the skilful submarine operations. Her fleet is intact but so
is the German, which adroitly refuses to come out and attack it.

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