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And it would've been good of me to sell into that market to alleviate the buying pressure...and I'd have reward now.

But there are so many bright people playing...how can it change so calamitously, yielding such a great S.T. opportunity. How ironic that so many people are trying to make money, and then a great change comes out of no where.

If I truly believe that I cannot beat the market, then I have gotten what I deserve. Opportunities pass in the market daily, and I let them pass by, knowing I cannot predict them. Yet I had hoped L.T. was predictable, and that I could rely on econometric service.

How can such an obvious over-valuation pass by mkt professionals?

6:45 Make + eat spaghetti

Think about risk + unexpected events, and how the unexpected can be emotionally (or mechanically) amplified.

9:15 Watch end of Golden Girls.

Feels god to laugh.

9:30 Think a little bit more, and realize that Skousen probably just got lucky by looking at the right risk facter at the right time. MFF had the same feeling about that particular risk factor, but took a lot of other things into account, which Skousen didn't.

I chose the thorough analysis and lost. Sometimes it's better to have blinders on, I guess.