2

it is becoming rapidly evident that the commercial status
of China is one of the greatest issues of the immediate future.
Our national scheme has developed rapidly, from our Pacific
coast of Hawaii, from Hawaii to the Philippines, from the
latter to free trade with China. Here we fetch up against
Russia, and the contest - peaceful we will hope - will be
between the land and the sea powers. Common interest,
but without formal alliance, dictates, and will insure,
cooperation between us and England, and it is one of
our greatest interests that the power of the latter should
for this reason receive neither [[diminution]] or loss of pres-
tige. Now, a conspicuous disaster in South Africa will
have no vital effect upon England's power; but it will
have a great moral effect in discouraging her people and en-
couraging, not mere hostile sentiment, but possibly
France or Russia. Such action would not probably be
immediately warlike, but would take the shape of
demands of one sort or another. To this twofold moral
effect we ought - in my judgement - to oppose the