2110-2-16-29

Somewhere in BW 1 8 Hereford Gardens W.

Hogmanay 1916

Dear John, People call this a "damned year" which is just ending; but I can't, because I have learned more from it than from any other of my life.

By this time next year I think we shall have peace; but I'm not certain - it might run on into the summer. This has been my feeling ever since the results of the battle of the Dunajec became apparent in May-June of last year: & I've never changed it.

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I thought the allies reply to Germany which is published in todays papers very good. I wonder who wrote it? It looks to me as if what purports to be the translation into English, were really the original. The form is not Gallic. Milner & Curzon in conjunction? It lacks the hircine aroma.

Your interesting letter reached me on 'boxing day'. Thank you for sending on General Charteris's invitation; and please thank him for giving it. I should like nothing more than to see the Grand Army at work, & only one thing as much - to see the Grand Fleet at work! I have only one reason for refusing, & that is my objection to going where I can be of no earthly use to anybody. I feel however that my virtue has been sapped by

your letter. I will write later as you suggest.

I must apologise for not replying sooner; but your letter reached me in the middle of great fusses about a Quarterly Article, & about certain attempts on my part - which failed - to do a bit of work for H.M.Govt. Then on Monday I took to my bed with a "sair hoart" [ST: cough] & here I have been ever since. I hope to get up tomorrow to drink a cup of wine on New Year's Day, & to go to Edgerston on estate business towards the end of the week.

I am very sorry to hear that Susie has been laid up. They say however that she is going on all right.

You divine the dangers of Liberal opposition all right; but I doubt if your method would work. The country does not admire the Monkey-Parrot-Houses, but it

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has certain vague instincts - which it calls constitutional principles - which make it suspicious of giving dictatorial powers to anybody - even to the Goat (though at present the populace is in the mood described in Chelmus's aphorism - Ecce Hircus Dei!) [ST: Lloyd George nicknamed "the Goat"]. If you went to the country with the programme you suggest it would at once conclude that you were plotting some nefarious means of "doing it in".

Frankly I am much puzzled about politics & the parliamentary situation. The position & strength of the present government depend upon three things chiefly, & in this order viz:- (1) How they comport themselves i.e. whether as men or sneckdrawing bletherskites (2) The fortunes of was (3) How Squiff feels when he picks himself up & rubs his bruises. - Of course if he is for it, he has about the best hand a politician could wish for. Anyone who is going to win

this war - as it stands at present, embarrassed in all sorts of ways - will have to face adversity & incur unpopularity. If Squiff is wise he will wait-&-see: he will wait till the war is nearly won, & then he will at some favourable moment offer himself - the old pilot - & his trusty crew to guide the ship into port. Then he will go down in history as the Minister who weathered the storm. - Certainly the ease of the game makes it tempting to an old parliamentary hand, however weary & well intentioned he may be, - as tempting as Roumania was to Hindenbugger. - So I would like to see the Liberal Party (as Dizzy said of the Protectionists) not only dead but damned. (It is to this end that I am trying to play the Devil in my Quarterly article) [this parenthesis in left margin] - If one fellow countryman B.-L. [Bonar Law] would only decide to go over to them I think this might be achieved!! All good wishes. How is the duo denum?

Yours ever

F.S. Oliver

[in left margin:] I hear that the Verdun victory was a very brilliant affair.