Vel Phillips Papers (Teaching, Box 3)

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writes, "It must always be remembered, however, that the white vote must first be split if the Negro vote is to be considered a balance of power." That element currently exsists[exists] with Glenn and Mondale. Both are hoping to balance their bid by collecting the Black vote. That seems less likely with Jackson entering the contest. He has already pulled 69 percent of the Black vote, according to the pollsters. As a result, a definite split has formed, not totally unlike that which occurred during the Chicago mayoral race involving Harold Washington (a Black), Richard Daley and Jane Burn (both white). All three were seeking the Democratic Party's nomination. True to Chuck Stone's contention, the white vote was split and history was made when that split enabled Washington to become the first Black mayor of America's third largest city.

Despite the similarities, the presidential race involving Jackson is not likely to follow the Chicago script completely. Black voters constitute less than 100 percent of the total voting population nationwide, quite a bit less than the 39.5 percent Black voters in Chicago. Coretta Scott King is quoted as saying, "I think Chicago sent a strong message." But she goes on to state, "There were some important losses on the Republican side during the last election – and there will be more this time."

If other Black leaders decide to expose the fear of a voter split that would lead to the re-election of Ronald Reagan, Jackson may well lose crucial support and consequently fail in his bid for the White House as well as success required in the upcoming primaries. So we can say there is a definite split already formed within the Democratic Party. Where there is a split, there is the possibility of some of the borderline conservative democrats becoming frustrated and crossing over to the Republican side, as in the case of Chicago. Some observers say that would probably mean that Glenn will get some of the vote (as did Chicago's Daley), but not enough to actually win. The realty of America's racial attitudes suggests that significant numbers of white voters find the idea of a Black candidate repulsive.

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CONCLUSION

My conclusion, which has three parts, is as follows. First, Jesse Jackson's candidacy may very well stimulate the Black vote in the 1984 presidential campaign (at least during the primaries), but it is also almost certain to stimulate the white vote as well. In the case of the latter, it appears unlikely that a majority of the white votes will be cast in Jackson's favor.

Secondly, Jackson may also run the risk of losing many Black voters who decide to follow the lead of influential Blacks (e.g. Benjamin Hooks, Coretta Scott King, Andrew Young and Coleman Young) who are urging support for a candidate they believe is more likely to gain the necessary white votes that would guarantee a victory over Ronald Reagan.

Thirdly, Jackson's candidacy is currently in serious trouble among Jewish voters, a traditionally strong and influential voting bloc in national elections. Jackson has so far failed to consider the effect that group's opposition could actually have upon his attempt to secure the democratic Party's presidential nomination.

It appears that three primary colors may well be missing from Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition and it seems unlikely that his rainbow will be able to shine with such holes continuing to exist.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

U. S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT. July 25, 1983, "Is the U. S. Ready for a Black?" (page 21-22)

Jesse Jackson: The Man, The Movement, The Myth Barbara A. Reynolds (Page 14)

Chicago Tribune, October 21, 1983, "Jackson Tops Black Leadership Poll" George E. Curry

Milwaukee Journal, October 13, 1983, "Jackson Shouldn't Run, Coretta King" UPI (United Press International)

New York Times, November 7, 1983, "Jackson and Jews" Ronald Smothers

Black Political Power in America, Chuck Stone (page 47)